News surrounding the conflict involving Iran has understandably created uncertainty in financial markets. When geopolitical events escalate, headlines move quickly and emotions can run high. I wanted to reach out personally to provide some perspective.
First and most importantly, our thoughts and prayers are with the servicemen and women deployed overseas and with all those affected by this conflict. Human lives matter far more than market movements. From an investment standpoint, history shows that geopolitical conflicts often create short-term volatility but rarely alter the long-term trajectory of disciplined investment plans.
One area where markets are reacting immediately is energy prices. Oil often rises during geopolitical conflicts, particularly when events involve the Middle East, a region that is an important producer of world supply.
A Recent Example: Russia’s 2022 Invasion of Ukraine
When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, oil prices quickly surged from $90 per barrel to over $120 per barrel. Markets initially declined as investors feared prolonged war, inflation, and global economic disruption.
However, the longer-term market outcome tells a particularly important story. From the initial invasion in February 2022 through the end of 2025, the S&P 500 delivered close to a 50% total return including dividends. And as you all know, dividends and a long-term plan are the foundation of our strategy.
History shows markets typically follow a pattern: initial shock, volatility, and fear, and then a return to economic fundamentals.
Our investment philosophy has been built around principles that become even more important during uncertain periods: dividends, diversification, long-term perspective, and disciplined decision-making.
Every major geopolitical crisis over the past fifty years—from wars and terrorist attacks to global conflicts—felt unpredictable and unsettling in the moment. Yet long-term investors who stayed disciplined through those periods participated in one of the greatest wealth-creation periods in history.
Our commitment is to help you maintain that discipline. Remember, a look at history shows the periods of uncertainty can also create opportunities for those with patience and a long-term view.
Please know we are watching the situation closely. It is perfectly fine to be concerned, we all are. However, history teaches that a proper perspective trumps uncertainty every time…and yes that is an intentional play on words.
If you have questions, concerns, or simply want to talk through what this means for your personal plan, I am always available.
Thank you for the continued trust you have shown in our firm. If you know of anyone who is concerned, please feel free to pass this along. And do not hesitate to send me Your2Cents.
May you have a blessed day, and may God bless and protect our servicemen and women.