We have reached mid-year and the dog days of summer are upon us. Most summers are laid back and uneventful, but not this year. In an earlier update titled Finding Calm in the Chaos, I discussed uncertainty in the nation and economy. Inflation remained high and rates would need to stay elevated to fight the inflation. To add to the nervousness, the Federal Reserve was walking a tight rope. They were trying to slow the economy and inflation by keeping rates higher for longer, but not so long as to send us into recession.
Little did we know that the Fed would be back page news as we witnessed an assassination attempt on a former President. Then a current sitting President who was running for reelection suddenly dropped out of the race after obtaining enough votes to secure his party’s nomination. And while I privately said I wouldn’t be surprised at an attempt on President Trump’s life and I thought the election would be nastier than any before, never would I have guessed the turn of events that took place.
But enough of politics, let’s take a check of the economy. Here are some headlines to keep in mind as you formulate your business plan for the last half of 2024:
- Every indication is the economy continues to slow.
- Unemployment has modestly risen.
- Consumer debt is rising.
- Real estate, housing and autos have indicated a slowdown.
In prior years, the Federal Reserve would not make rate changes in the heat of a national election, but this year is proving that nothing is “normal” anymore. There is now a premise the Fed will cut rates…and cut them repeatedly.
The political backdrop will certainly make this A Summer to Remember, and the next 98 days could bring more madness. We urge you to keep a close eye for more signs of a slowdown in your business, and have a plan of attack if it impacts you.
We will keep a keen eye on economic statistics as a recession could happen, something many business owners are not prepared for. If you would like a meeting to discuss your 2024 second half and what to do in an economic slowdown, just let me know.
Thank you as always for your business and friendship. If you know of anyone who could benefit from this message, please feel free to pass it along.
